Impact of COVID-19 on tourism in Italy

Tourist Mentions and Tourist Mentions related to COVID-19

Tourist Mentions Analysis

The impact of COVD-19 on tourist mentions has declined over the last month and a half. Tourist mentions related to COVID-19 were present since the beginning of the review period. From the 23rd February the impact of Coronavirus on tourist mentions became more noticeable. The peak of COVID-19 impact on tourism was on the 18th of March when 16% of tourist mentions were related to the  Coronavirus. Since mid-April the share of mentions related to Coronavirus has been declining. On the 17th of May, only 7% of all tourist mentions were related to COVID-19.

Security Perception Index

Main Origin Markets: Italy, UK, Spain, France and Germany / Period: 1st February 2020 – 17th May 2020

Security Perception Index

The Security Perception declined mostly in the UK followed by Germany, France and Spain. The national origin market was the least affected. The Global Security Perception Index for Italy declined by 14% in the analysed period compared to 2019. The European markets under review reacted differently in terms of Security Perception during the selected period. The international markets were the most affected by the crisis with strongest declines between the end of March and mid-April. The Security Perception Index for the three markets has picked up again since the end of April. Nevertheless, the index levels are still lower than the ones at the beginning of February. UK shows the lowest score whilst France has nearly recovered to pre-crisis levels. The national market was not as affected as other countries showing smaller fluctuations in the index during the reviewed period. In May the index reverted to nearly pre-crisis levels.

Number of Flight Searches to Italy

Flight Searches between 01/02/2020 and 14/05/2020 to fly to Italy on any dates after the search date. Airports included are: FCO, NAP, MXP, VCE, FLR, PMO, VRN, GOA, LIN, CIA, CTA, OLB.

Number of Flight Searches to Italy

Travel demand to Italy has been strongly hit but year on year growth rates have improved slightly since the end of April. Travel demand to Italy – comparing search flights in 2019 versus 2020 – shows a trend change from the 20th of February with the number of current searches being lower than previous year searches. The flight search year-on-year daily growth rate showed the strongest decline on the 13th of March.  The year-on-year flight search variation is recording smaller declines in the last weeks.

Flight Searches to Italy from Italy

Travel date: 01/07/2020 until 31/07/2020 and comparison with previous year / Searches between 15/04/2020 and 15/05/2020. Data updated on the 15th May 2020. Airports: see Appendix for full list.

Flight Searches - Mabrian Technologies

The national market share of flight searches to Italy increased. The number of flight searches to Italy from the national market strongly declined between mid-April and mid-May 2020 compared to 2019; declines were between 76% and 96%.In 2020 the share of searches to Italy out of the searches to any destinations by the national market increased from 4 for every 100,000 searches to 9 compared to 2019.

Flight Searches to Italy from France

Travel date 01/07/2020 until 31/07/2020 and comparison with previous year / Searches between 15/04/2020 and 15/05/2020. Data updated on the 15th May 2020. Airports: see Appendix for full list.

Flight Searches - Mabrian Technologies

French share of flight searches to Italy was the highest and it grew the fastest. Searches were mainly from Paris, Nice and Toulouse. Length of stay was between 4 and 7 days. Flight searches to Italy from France showed a negative 2019-2020 growth rate declining by between 87% and 95%. In 2020 within French flight searches to any destination, the share of searches to Italy increased compared to 2019 from 1.9 for every 100,000 searches to 4.9 on average. France is the market with the highest share of flight searches to Italy out of all the reviewed European origin markets. This share also showed the strongest year-on-year increase in the review period. The three main flight search origins in France were: Paris, Nice and Toulouse. 58% of potential visitors from France were looking to stay in Italy for 4-7 days.

Flight Searches to Italy from Spain

Travel date 01/07/2020 until 31/07/2020 and comparison with previous year / Searches between 15/04/2020 and 15/05/2020. Data updated on the 15th May 2020. Airports: see Appendix for full list.

Flight Searches - Mabrian Technologies

Spain’s share of searches to Italy was the second highest. Nearly half of these searches were from Barcelona. The majority of searchers looked to stay in Italy for 4-7 days. In 2020 the number of flight searches strongly declined compared to 2019 with daily year-on-year declines between 83% and 96%. Nevertheless, the share of flight searches to Italy out of all Spaniard searches to any destination grew from 1 searches for every 100,000 searches to 1.7 on average. Spain has the second highest share of flight searches to Italy out of all the reviewed European origin markets. Nearly half of flight searches from Spain were from Barcelona. Madrid was the second most important origin in terms of flight searches to Italy. 39% of potential visitors had the intention to stay in Italy for 4-7 days while 32% of them were looking to stay for 8-15 days.

Flight Searches to Italy from Germany

Travel date 01/07/2020 until 31/07/2020 and comparison with previous year / Searches between 15/04/2020 and 15/05/2020. Data updated on the 15th May 2020. Airports: see Appendix for full list.

Flight Searches - Mabrian Technologies

The German share of searches to Italy recorded an important growth. Frankfurt and Munich were the main origins. Searchers looked to stay 8-15 days. In 2010 daily numbers of flight searches from Germany to Italy were well below the figures of the previous year in the same period declining by between 67% and 97%.   Nevertheless, in 2020 the intention to fly to Italy grew from 0.6 searches for every 100,000 to 1.2 compared to searches to any other destination from Germany in 2019 in the same period. Germany was the third most important market in terms of share of flight searches to Italy out of all the reviewed European origin markets. Frankfurt and Munich were the two most important origins of flight searches followed by Cologne. 33% of searchers intended to stay in Italy for 8-15 days, whilst 27% for 4-7 days and 26% for 2-3 days.

Flight Searches to Italy from UK

Travel date 01/07/2020 until 31/07/2020 and comparison with previous year / Searches between 15/04/2020 and 15/05/2020. Data updated on the 15th May 2020. Airports: see Appendix for full list.

Flight Searches - Mabrian Technologies

The share of flight searches to Italy from the UK grew. Searches were mainly from London. Potential visitors were mostly looking to stay 2-3 days. In 2020 the daily flight search year-on-year growth rate declined between 88% and 96%. Nevertheless, the UK intention to travel to Italy versus other destinations increased in 2020 compared to 2019 with searches to Italy growing on average from 0.4 for every 100,000 searches to 0.5. UK recorded the smallest share in terms of flight searches to Italy compared to the other markets under review. The majority of flight searches were from London followed by Manchester and Edinburgh. 51% of searchers looked to stay for 2-3 days.

Scheduled Direct Inbound Flight Seats to Italy

Travel date 01/05/2020 to 31/07/2020 and comparison with previous year. Data updated on the 15th May 2020. Airports: see Appendix for full list. 

Flight Searches - Mabrian Technologies
Flight Searches - Mabrian Technologies

Direct flight connections improve from mid-June with fewer flight seats being cancelled. The year-on-year variation of inbound scheduled flights to Italy declined by over 90% in May- according to airline schedules as of the 15th May 2020. Year-on-year negative growth rates improve in June with a monthly decline of 38%.  In July a lower number of scheduled flight seats are lost with the year-on-year monthly growth rate declining by 8%. In 2020, Germany and the Netherlands are the most affected countries in relative terms with their direct flight connectivity showing a year-on-year decline of 45% in the review period compared to 2019. IMPORTANT NOTE: These schedules are updated daily and are subject to change.

Programmed Direct Inbound Flight Seats to Italy from FR, DE, UK, ES by Airport

Travel date 01/05/2020 to 31/07/2020 and comparison with previous year. Data updated on the 15th May 2020. Airports: top 10 see Appendix for full list.

Flight Searches - Mabrian Technologies

In July 2020, six of the top 10 origin airports record an increase in their scheduled seats compared to 2019 – according to the published airline flight schedules as of the 15th of May. In May 2020, scheduled flight capacity by airport declines by between 61% and 89% compared to the previous year.  Three of the top five airports are located in London and two are in Paris. In June 2020, scheduled flight seats from the top 10 airports decline at a lower rate with the highest declines reaching 60% compared to the previous year. In June 2020, Stansted Airport shows a positive year-on-year capacity growth. In July 2020, six out of the top 10 airports, from the countries under review, show a positive year-on-year growth rate with London Gatwick showing the highest rate of 6%. IMPORTANT NOTE: These schedules are updated daily and are subject to change.

Index Definitions and Sources Mabrian Technologies

Tourist Mentions

Mentions collected from Social Media Networks related to a destination that express visit or intention to visit. Mentions of the destination residents or those made by the Media or related to politics, sports, commercials, etc. are excluded. Source: Social Networks (Instagram and Twitter).

Security Perception Index:

It is calculated by analysing sentiment of the tourist mentions for the destination from the different markets through techniques of Natural Language Processing and Artificial Intelligence.
Source: Social Networks (Instagram and Twitter).

Flight Searches

Flight searches carried out spontaneously by potential visitors through OTAs, Metasearch engines or traditional agencies.
Source: GDSs.

Flight Search Share:

Relative volume of flight searches carried out for a destination in relation to the total number of flight searches carried out by that market to any destination, in the selected period (search or travel).
Source: Mabrian.

Flight Capacity:

Programmed inbound flight seats for monitored destination airports from any source with direct connectivity. Schedule published by the airlines on daily bases.
Source: Cirium.

Airports included in Capacity and Flight Searches, unless otherwise stated, are: Abruzzo Airport (PSR), Alghero-Fertilia Airport (AHO), Ancona Falconara Airport (AOI), Brindisi – Salento Airport (BDS), Cagliari Elmas Airport (CAG), Catania–Fontanarossa Airport (CTA), Ciampino-G. B. Pastine International Airport (CIA), Falcone–Borsellino Airport (PMO), Firenze-Peretola Airport (FLR), Genoa Cristoforo Colombo Airport (GOA), Guglielmo Marconi Airport (BLQ), Lamezia Terme International Airport (SUF), Leonardo da Vinci-Fiumicino Airport (FCO), Milano Linate Airport (LIN), Milano Malpensa Airport (MXP), Naples International Airport (NAP), Olbia Costa Smeralda Airport (OLB), Orio al Serio International Airport (BGY), Palese Airport (BRI), Pisa International Airport (PSA), Treviso Airport (TSF), Trieste – Friuli Venezia Giulia Airport (TRS), Turin Airport (TRN), Venice Marco Polo Airport (VCE), Verona Villafranca Airport (VRN).

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