High season trends: uncertainty and price drops for the main holiday destinations

The drop in hotel prices for July, August and September is a reflection of the uncertainty shown by Spain’s main source markets: United Kingdom, Germany and France.

With the summer 2019 campaign well underway, here at Mabrian Technologies we decided to analyse the latest trends between July and end of September in some of the main tourist zones in Spain: Canary Islands, Balearic Islands, Costa Blanca and Costa Daurada for three of the most relevant origin markets: United Kingdom, Germany and France.

At the start of this new high season, seemingly marked by uncertainty as well as hope for last minute reservations, at Mabrian we’ve analysed different data sources to identify the tourist dynamics that are affecting each of these destinations and origin markets. We performed a comparative analysis on air connectivity, hotel prices and tourist interactions on Social Media (perceptions and interests) in order to identify and attempt to predict these trends.

Overall, we detected a certain level of stability with regards to the programmed direct air capacity with the exception of the Canary Islands, a generalised decrease in average prices until September and a more heterogenous distribution of tourist interests. The more mature products such as Sunbathing and Night Life are giving way to other tourist products such as Gastronomy, Culture and Wellness. Despite this, some marked differences were still detected between the dynamics observed in each destination.

Canary Islands: A season of downward adjustment

The Canary archipelago is the destination most affected by the reduction in incoming flight seats from France and more particularly Germany. The average hotel prices show significant decreases in all categories for the July to September period.

With regards to the evolution of tourist interests for these markets, an increase in interest for the Culture and Gastronomy products for all markets is noteworthy, whereas in general there is a decrease in interest for the Active and Nature products. Moreover, differences have been identified according to the different markets.

Balearic Islands: Decline in number of flights from Germany

The flights programmed from the UK and France remain positive but there is a significant fall in flights programmed from Germany, one of the key markets for the islands. The average hotel prices between July and September generally seem to suffer a slight decline, with the exception of superior category hotels in July and August.

With regards to the evolution of tourist interests for these markets, an increase in the Gastronomy and Nature product for all markets is noteworthy, as opposed to a generalised decrease for the Sunbathing (which nonetheless remains the most important product) and Active products. Moreover, differences have also been identified according to the different markets.

Costa Daurada: Decline in the luxury sector

Reus airport, which is a point of reference for this destination, shows a divergent evolution. Although flight seats from the UK are increasing, they are decreasing from Germany. There are no direct air connections from France due to proximity of destination, despite the importance of the market. The average hotel prices between July and September show a significant and generalised drop. This is specifically the case for superior category hotels, reaching a decrease of up to -19% in August.

With regards to the evolution of tourist interests for these markets, all markets show an increase in interest for the Gastronomy and Culture products whereas more mature products such as Sunbathing and Night Life show a more generalised decrease in interest. Differences have also been identified according to the different markets.

Costa Blanca. Stability and optimism

Alicante airport, which is a point of reference for this destination, is the one showing the best evolution in comparison to all of the destinations analysed. There is an increase in incoming programmed flights for all three markets in general. The average hotel prices for 4- and 5-star hotels between July and September remains stable with only a slight decrease in prices. 3-star hotels however, do show a considerable drop in average prices on offer.

With regards to the evolution of tourist interests for these markets, all markets show an increase in interest for the Gastronomy and Nature products whereas more mature products such as Sunbathing and Culture show a more generalised decrease in interest. Differences have also been identified according to the different markets.

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